Solder Paste

Folks,

The impetus for writing the Patty and the Professor series, in 2009,  <posts here>  <hardcopy book here> came from my observations that many assemblers were not very focused on productivity.  Productivity seemed to be an afterthought.  Since then little has changed.  This conclusion seems astounding, since all assemblers are in business to make a profit.

In light of this situation, I have developed 10 questions, valued at 10 points each, to help assemblers assess their profitability potential. If You are a printed circuit board assembler, take this quiz and see how you rate:

1. Although quality may be job 1, our company has a strong focus on productivity. At all levels everyone understands that, when the line is down, we are not making money.
2. We have a practice, understood by all, that if a line is down more than a specified amount of amount time, the line down situation is escalated through the management chain.
3. All of our operators, technicians, and engineers have been trained in procedures to assure the minimum amount of downtime.
4. We measure and graph our line uptime and other productivity metrics.  Everyone knows the approximate value of these metrics.
5. Our component placement machines are time balanced.
6. We use feeder racks and other preparation devices to prepare for the next job while the current job(s) are running.
7. A major consideration in the purchase of our assembly equipment is its effect on productivity, not the equipment’s cost alone.
8. A major consideration in the purchase of our assembly materials, such as solder paste, is its effect on productivity (e.g. poor paste response to pause would be a strong rejection criteria,) not the material’s cost alone.
9. We us productivity and cost metrics, such as non-material assembly per I/O assembled (NMAC/I/O), to track our performance.
10. We understand that sometimes an added expense, such as solder preforms, can actually reduce the total cost and increase productivity and profitability.

Ratings:

• World Class: ≥ 90
• Above Average: 75 - 89
• Average:  55 - 74
• Below Average: < 55

How did you do?  Let me know what you think. We hope to have this online soon.

Cheers,

Dr. Ron

PS:  Here is my golf score in a recent one man scramble. I was hoping to break 60 and it worked out.

Maria Durham, Indium’s new Technical Specialist in Semiconductor and Advanced Assembly Materials, has been doing some research on indium lead (In/Pb) solder alloys. We chatted about her findings this week. 

 [Andy C. Mackie: ACM] Which indium/lead solder alloys are most common, and what are their properties?

[Maria Durham: MD] Firstly, the use of lead-(Pb-)containing solders in some soldering applications is restricted due to local environmental and RoHS compliance, but there are still many applications where they are  allowed. Many military, aerospace, and industrial equipment uses, as well as many applications related to vehicles, are exempt. The table below shows the most common indium/lead (In/Pb) alloys (pink) and their properties, sorted by liquidus temperature; the higher of the two melting points (solidus and liquidus) seen for non-eutectic alloys. In blue are three comparison materials.

Indalloy 205 is the most commonly used, probably because it has the closest liquidus temperature to the tin/lead eutectic (183°C), 63Sn/37Pb (Indalloy 106). This means it can be reflowed using a standard Sn/Pb eutectic profile. The next most common alloys that are used are Indalloy7, 204, and 206.  Besides the melting range, indium has comparable thermal and electrical conductivity to standard materials.

[ACM] What makes indium-lead (In/Pb) solders so attractive, and why have we seen a recent resurgence in their usage?

 [MD] One main attraction to using indium/lead (In/Pb) solder alloys in soldering to precious metal surfaces is that, unlike tin-containing solders, they do not leach gold. That is, gold does not dissolve in them to any appreciable extent. During discussions at Semicon West in 2011, one of our California customers reported going through 8 simulated reflows with Indalloy 205 in contact with a gold surface with no loss of joint strength and no joint embrittlement. That is pretty impressive. Note that embrittlement is often caused by gold-intermetallic formation. It has been noted that even at 250°C, 50In/50Pb dissolves Au at a rate 13 times slower than it does into 63Sn/37Pb, although this, of course, is a kinetic, not a solubility limit, study.

The higher melting Indalloy 164 (92.5Pb/5In/2.5Ag) has the lowest coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of all of the In/Pb solders and is able to withstand the higher temperature excursions that can be seen in step-soldering type applications (where a very high melting solder is used to form the first joint, followed by a next lowest melting alloy, and so on). This is seen in applications such as power electronics assembly, where the first step solder is often used for die-attach either as a solder paste, wire, or preform. The high melting point helps the solder withstand the operational temperatures associated with under-the-hood electronics, in applications such as engine control modules, where Indalloy 151 (92.5Pb/5Sn/2.5Ag) or Indalloy 163 (95.5Pb/2Sn/2.5Ag) are most commonly used. In/Pb solder is excellent on very rigid structures such as ceramic-to-metal or ceramic-to-ceramic. The desired solidus / liquidus temperature range can be adjusted by changing the indium:lead ratio, making it very easy to “dial in” the alloy to a specific reflow process.

Another attraction to using In/Pb solders is that they exhibit good fatigue resistance in thermal cycling from -55°C to 125°C.  In testing, the 50In50Pb solder joint fatigue life is about 100 times greater than that for 63Sn/37Pb.

 [ACM] What fluxes are used in these applications, and how are they formulated differently?

 [MD] The fluxes most compatible with the lower melting point (<200°C) indium-containing solders are NC-SMQ-80 (solder paste) or the lower-tack TacFlux® 012 (suitable for use with wire, preforms, and spheres). These are no-clean fluxes, specifically formulated for lower temperature reflow.  Under appropriate low temperature reflow these fluxes leave behind benign residues that do not need to be cleaned off (“no-clean” flux), although they are often cleaned off in most practical applications, usually to ensure reliable wirebonds absent of flux spatter.

 To learn more, please contact us.

 Cheers!  Andy

SMT: A Story of Solder Paste Printing Speed

近期我们有一个客户在解决一个和锡膏、芯片、工艺流程等相关的不良率问题。这是一款十分热门的电子消费类产品，在中国的两个主要加工厂量产。

我们公司十分积极帮助客户探讨最优的解决方案，除了及时送样品，我们的技术团队和销售团队还经常拜访客户，提供试样现场技术支持等。但是让我们很吃惊的一点是，客户在做各种试样测试时，锡膏的印刷速度居然是25mm/sec，这是行业里我见过的最低的印刷速度，虽然美国很多中小 加工厂都在用这个速度，因为他们的最终产品是高精尖的军用、航天、医疗器械等，数量不多，而且印刷速度不是瓶颈。

但是在中国或是很多亚洲国家生产的电子消费类产品 (consumer electronics),都是 low mix high volume 的大规模量产，每一条SMT线就像一台印刷钞票的机器，越短的 cycle time, 就能生产处越多的产品，那就更有更高的生产率（high productivity）。印刷速度有时候是瓶颈，所以在亚洲的加工厂，一般印刷速度比较快。

就拿这个客户在中国的两个加工厂来说，印刷速度在 50mm/sec到120mm/sec之间。 也就是说在这个印刷速度的条件下（虽然这只是条件之一）出现了问题……不同的印刷速度，很多时候会影响到锡膏的性能，因为印刷速度和压力能够影响到 shear force and shear speed，这些都是下锡量多少的重要决定因素。而下锡量多少，对很多锡膏性能表现的好坏都会起到决定性的作用，特别是客户现在在研究的不良率。

Musings on Metals: Copper

It could be argued that civilization began with the smelting of copper.  Although thousands of years before, humans fired clay to make figurines and containers, smelting required several non-obvious steps.  After all, the firing of clay, at some level, can be accomplished by simply dropping clay into a fire.

To smelt copper, our ancestors had to:

1. Take malachite (see photo) or another copper ore, grind it up or break it into small pieces
2. Mix the ground malachite with carbon
3. Heat the mixture in a vessel to 1,085^oC. 

Malachite Ore

Achieving this temperature with a wood fire is, to me, astounding.  Think about those days when you are grilling some burgers.  You leave the grill on after the burgers are done, to burn off the grease.  You come back 20 minutes later and the grill is at 500^oF.  You can feel the heat.  Even touching the knob to turn the gas off is intimidating, as the heat drives you back.  This temperature, 500^oF, is only 260^oC!  The ancients reaching 1,085^oC with wood and bellows is, indeed, impressive. By the way, a good rule of thumb to convert degrees C to degrees F from 100^oC to 1,500⁰C is that 2XC=F, this fast approximation is accurate to about 10% in this range.

The confluence of the three procedures is not only non-intuitive, but think how many times the smelter of old could only reach 900^oC and failed.  I have argued that if copper melted at 1,200^oC or so, civilization would have never gotten started.  This temperature is perhaps a little too high to reach with a wood fire.  The smelting of copper encouraged investigations into other metals, eventually resulting in the discovery of the processing of iron, an even less intuitive process than smelting copper.  So, I believe that the success with copper was necessary to the production of steel. 

Copper smelting became an industry that encouraged permanent settlements and stimulated trade, which encouraged writing and ciphering.  An effective copper smelter would likely keep secret some of his craft as he wanted a competitive advantage.  He could make more by smelting copper than doing anything else, so he almost certainly was an early specialist.

Considering all of this, I believe that without the discovery of copper smelting, we might still be living in huts or teepees, using stone tools, and living a nomadic existence without commerce, writing, or mathematics.  Examples to support this thesis are the state of native peoples in the Americas in the 1400s.  These native peoples had never learned to smelt metals and hence also lacked the follow-on aspects of civilization mentioned above.

Today, copper is a foundation material for electronics, given its excellent electrical conductivity, second only to silver.  Copper’s ductility likely aids in the formation of PWB traces and plated through-holes in that it resists cracking.

Additionally, copper's ability to form an electrical and mechanical bond with solder is another trait that makes it a winner as an electrically-conductive assembly material in modern electronics.

Copper has been used for more than 10 millennia, but, as with most metals, 90 to 95% of it has been mined since 1900.  About 15,000,000 metric tons (MT) are used each year, third to aluminum’s   22,000,000 MT and steel’s unequaled 1,000,000,000 MT.

In the next installment, we will discuss tin and how it forms an intermetallic with copper during soldering.  Thus making solder paste, solder wire, and solder preforms critical components of electronics assembly.

 Cheers,

Dr. Ron

Folks,

One of the nice aspects of being a Professor at Dartmouth is teaching a course like ENGS 1: The Technology of Everyday Things.  This course is designed for non-engineering students and fills a technology and applied science requirement for them.  In the course, we cover the technology of the automobile, mobile phone, GPS, DVD players, the personal computer, etc.

This year, I purchased an iPad 2 and an Amazon Kindle Fire and added them to the topics.  I had three basic goals in this effort:

1. Discuss how they work
2. Compare them
3. Answer the question, “Will they replace my personal computer?”

So this week, instead of discussing solder paste, cost of ownership, solder preforms, or productivity, let’s see what I learned.

I did this analysis with two of my graduate students and reviewed the basic conclusions with Dartmouth IT staff and students in the class.  Here is a summary:

The iPad is a terrific device for organizing and consuming content such as videos, music, photographs, and, perhaps most importantly, games.  It is extremely intuitive.  My four, five and six year old grandchildren use it for games with no coaching.   With the iCloud, content can be organized and stored very simply.

However, for creating verbal or mathematical content, it is not intuitive or simple.  As an example,  assume you have a letter or paper from a colleague on a USB memory stick that you need to edit.  Apple so controls the “experience” of the iPad that you cannot load anything from a memory stick or any other device, like your PC, onto it.  You must send an email or load the content into iCloud.  The recommended software (or apps) for word processing, spreadsheets, or presentations for the iPad will work with MS Office, but I didn’t find the apps that great.  Saving and filing documents is also not that straightforward.  When I tried to create letters, papers, spreadsheets, or presentations on my iPad 2, I found myself longing for my laptop. I’m not saying it can’t be done, I’m just saying it wasn’t easy for me.  An external keyboard (about $70) makes data entry much easier. 

The Amazon Kindle Fire is only about 25-35% of the cost of an iPad.  In my opinion, the Android software is pretty good.  For consuming content, such as movies, books, photos, etc. the Fire is very good, but not quite as good as the iPad.  I don’t do games enough to make a comment. (Sometimes I feel as though I am the only one in the world who does not play Angry Birds.) For verbal and numeric content creation, the Fire makes working with MS Office documents easier.  It is also easy to store and load documents from a PC with a USB connection.

Both devices are beating the rest of the competition with their seamless connection to their respective stores.  I think this advantage that Apple and Amazon have over other devices has been understated. I believe Amazon Prime is a strong reason to consider the Kindle Fire.  In addition to free two-day shipping for purchases, members get many free videos and have access to a free lending library.

Steve Job’s said it best when he announced the iPad.  Quoted in Walter Isaacson’s outstanding  biography of Jobs, he said something like, “We have the iMac and we have the iPhone, now we have something in between.”  I think that is a fair summary.   The portability of tablets can make them ideal for passing family photos around, or for police to have a larger than mobile phone photo of a suspect to share with colleagues and witnesses.  Tablets can be stored in a suitcase or briefcase when going through airport security, a definite advantage.  But they are not a replacement for the full functionality of a PC.

The higher resolution of the iPad 3 enables viewing x-rays and CT scans and, of course, HD video.  The 10 hour battery life frees one from needing to have a power cord during the day, so it could be beneficial in meetings.  However, I found the Penultimate app, which allows writing on the screen, not that usable.  It was harder to get neat writing than with pen and paper, and the words were too large.  See the image.  The documents formed would (again!) have to be emailed to get them from the iPad to another device.  It would make more sense, to me, to take notes on paper and scan the paper into a PDF. Modern scanners make this act a snap. Apple makes it almost a necessity.

In summary, for a user like me who creates papers, blog posts, Excel® spreadsheets and PowerPoint® presentations, a tablet is a weak substitute for a laptop.  For consuming content like videos, books, music, and photos, or for playing games, they are tough to beat.

Which of the two do I use the most?  The Kindle Fire, mostly due to the connection to the Amazon store for books and free videos from Amazon Prime.  I think this device, at a fraction of the cost of an iPad3, may be more of a threat to the iPad than many people think.

I'd like to hear your thoughts and opinions. Please comment!

Cheers,

Dr. Ron

Folks,

Let’s look in on Patty and Pete and see how they are handling Rex “The Torrent.”

Patty wanted to give Pete a little more exposure so she nodded to him to chime in.

“It is true that Pinnacle’s line cost only 70% of Optoplace’s line and it does have a lower ‘cost of ownership’ in that it costs less to own, but we lose our shirt because of its 6 hours per week less uptime,” Pete began.

Torant stormed in, “There ain’t no way that 6 hours a week can make up for 30% savings in cost of ownership. We must be talking about over $600,000 dollars difference in capital cost.”

Patty heard this comment and wondered why people that make poor arguments need to add bad grammar, too.

“Torant makes a good point Pete,” Madigan quickly interjected.

“Actually it is $660K in additional initial capital investment per line, plus about $40K a year in service for the higher profit potential line,” Pete responded with a smile.

“I told you so,” Torant said excitedly.

At this comment Pete put up a PowerPoint® slide that showed the resulting comparison:

Pete explained, “The average of 6 hours/week of increased uptime in our typical 3 shift operation results in the additional production of more than 22,000 units per line per year for the higher profit potential line.  Each line producing on average more than $340,000 more profit.”

“But that’s not as much as the additional $660K cost of the line,” Torant countered.

“The extra capital cost is included in the calculation,” Pete calmly replied.

“Well, Torant, that’s one you lost,” Mike Madigan said in a way that indicated that discussion on this point was finished.

Torant looked temporarily defeated, but he recovered quickly. “What about the solder paste? Ultima costs $0.02/gram less than the ElectroMaterials paste,” Torant challenged.

“That’s true,” said Patty. “But we have to stir it out of the jar for it to print well, and it has poor response to pause.”

Torant wouldn’t let her finish, “But that can’t make up for two cents per gram,” he snarled.

“Not true,” Patty snapped back. “Every time the line is down for a short time we have to wipe the first print because the transfer efficiency is so poor.  We lose an hour a week of production time.  In addition, when we are printing a lot, the paste shear thins and we have to replace it with fresh paste.  We actually pay more for the Ultima paste because we scrap so much.  However, the lost time is what hurts the most financially.”

“Only one hour per week!" Torant screamed. “I spend more time than that on smoke breaks. One hour per week can’t possibly make a big difference.”

Patty rolled her eyes and then displayed another slide that showed the profit comparison.

“This slide shows that by using the Ultima paste we lose over 3,700 units of production and over $140K of profit per year per line in that 1 hour hour per week.  One hour per week is 52 hours per year, let's not forget” Patty responded.

At this, Torant slammed his fist on the table, packed up his briefcase, and literally left the room in, well.... a torrent.

Patty, Pete, Madigan, and Sam just looked at each other.

“Well, maybe we won’t have to put up with him for awhile,” Pete said smiling.

“Nice work Patty and Pete", Madigan said. "Let’s develop an implementation plan phasing everything in you recommended as soon as is practical.”

Patty was always surprised when Madigan showed a little warmth by calling her and Pete by their first names.

“Sure thing, Mike,” she answered.  It was the first time she ever called him by his given name.

“Oh, and I guess it was a good thing we didn’t get around to discussing solder preforms,” Patty teased. "The ones Torant sells have too much flux and they gum up the pick & place nozzles.”

With that comment, they all chuckled and took it as a key that the meeting was over.

Cheers,

Dr. Ron

Folks,

Patty is getting ready for her meeting on "Copy Exactly" with Mike Madigan.......

It was after 6:30 PM and Patty was just arriving home.  Since Patty was working late, Rob had agreed to make his signature dish, crispy macaroni and cheese.  Patty and Pete had just finished their project to develop a copy exactly strategy for ACME.  They would present it tomorrow to CEO Mike Madigan.  The local GM, Sam Watkins, would be there too.  Technically Mike was her boss in her Senior VP position, but since she had an office at the ACME facility in Exeter, NH, she reported to Sam - “dotted line.”  Patty had been working late for weeks on this project and was glad that the greatest portion of the work was over.

As she opened the door to her house, her twin 2 year old boys ran up to her in their excitement to see their mom and nearly knocked her over.  She tussled with them for a few minutes and then went to give Rob a hug.  He had the dinner on the table and they all quickly sat down.  Rob and Patty had a "no technology" rule at meals…..no mobile phones, iPads etc.  Meal time was family time.  After discussing the events of the day, Rob’s face lit up.

“I found out today that there is something we look at more than anything else,” Rob stated.

“OK, OK, let me guess,” Patty replied.

After a number of tries, she hadn’t gotten it.

Alright, I give up, Patty said with playful exasperation.

“Indium, or really Indium Tin Oxide (ITO), it is a transparent conductor of electricity.  We look through it when we look at our computer, tablet or mobile phone screens.  Think about it, for most of us we probably look through ITO for 8 to 10 hours a day.  It’s like we have a love affair with the stuff,” Rob explained.

Patty almost choked on some of the mac and cheese on the last comment.

“Why have you become such an expert on this stuff?” Patty asked.

“Well, you remember that ACME may go into component assembly? Sam asked me to look into indium thermal interface material (TIM)  for some of the component packages that need to dissipate a lot of heat,” Rob answered.

Patty knew a little bit about TIMs, but not about ITO.

“But why did you learn about ITO?” she asked.

“Sam is worried that Indium supplies may not be enough to satisfy TIM requirements, so he asked me to look into it,” Rob answered.

“What is the conclusion? Patty asked.

“Well, Indium is about as common in the earth’s crust as silver, but a little more difficult to extract.  This probably gives it the reputation of being rare.  Fortunately for me a recent analysis was performed that showed that the indium supply will be more than adequate for the next 75 years ,” Rob said.

Rob went on, “Indium is a very interesting material, it is one of the few materials that wets glass, so it enables metal sealing to glass.  It was only discovered in 1863 and it wasn’t until the 1930s that the first practical use for indium was discovered: aircraft bearing lubrication.  In a sense, it could be argued that it is one of the materials of the future, as we are just now learning about its potential.”

While he was talking, Rob reached into his backpack and took something out.

“Look at this, or rather listen,” Rob said.

With that, he took a thin bar of metal and bent it. A crackling sound came from the metal.  Patty was fascinated.

“What was that?" she asked.

“When a thin bar of indium is bent, it gives off a sound.  It is called “Indium Cry.”  The salesman for the TIMs we are using let me borrow it for a presentation I am giving to Sam Watkins next week,” Rob answered.

Dinner was soon finished and Patty had to get the boys to bed after playing with them for awhile.  Today was Spanish day and all of their discussions were in that language.  Another day was Mandarin Chinese day.  The boys already understood the three languages spoken at home.

A few hours later, Patty lay in bed - energized by the thought of her meeting tomorrow.

When she woke up the next day, she exercised at home, ate breakfast, and took the boys to day care.  See arrived at the office 30 minutes before the big meeting.  After checking emails, she went to the conference room where the meeting would be held, to set up her computer.  At precisely 8AM, Mike Madigan and Sam Watkins arrived.

“OK Coleman, let’s get this show on the road,” Madigan commanded.

“Since our last meeting we have analyzed assembly equipment and materials to determine which ones would be best for a copy exactly strategy,” Patty began.

She then showed her third slide and spoke to it.

“The winner for component placement equipment is Optoplace, as are their stencil printer and reflow ovens.  Exactotest makes the winning testers and ElectoMaterials the best solder paste and solder preforms,” Patty went on.

“Can you explain your methodology?” Sam asked.

“We looked at what The Professor calls ‘Profit Potential,’ simply the equipment and material that gives the most profit, assuming you are running a well tuned organization.  Fortunately, since ACME has 80 assembly lines we were able to get real process performance data on all of the major machines available, ” Patty answered.

“You answer seems a little evasive, why didn’t you use ‘Cost of Ownership?’” Madigan challenged.

“Some machines cost less to own, but they are down more for assists and when they need repair, we have to wait longer for the repair man.  From what The Professor taught us, uptime is very important. Anything that hurts uptime, like a late repairman or a machine that needs more assist time, will hurt profits.  The same is true for materials like solder paste.  If they cost less, but result in line downtime for response to pause issues or some other fault, they hurt profitability.” Patty responded.

Just then Sam’s administrative assistant, Clare Perkins opened the door.

“As you requested Mr. Madigan, your guest is joining the meeting,” Clare said.

“Well Torant, looks like Coleman said you lost,” Madigan said to the new arrival.

Upon seeing Rex Torant, Patty became a little unsettled and Pete turned his famous crimson red.  Patty and Pete called him “Rex the Torrent” as he spoke so rapidly when trying to sell them something.  Both found this manufacturer’s “rep” annoying.

“Everyone, I invited Rex to the meeting.  We met at the airport last night and started chatting.  He assured me that his Pinnacle equipment line and Ultima solder paste would be the winners today since they have the lowest cost of ownership,” Madigan explained.

Torant saw the slide announce Optoplace, Exactotest and ElectoMaterials as the winners.

“My products are just as reliable and cost 30% a year less to own,” Torant fumed at Patty.

Patty had not anticipated Torant’s attendance at the meeting but had prepared for this type of question.

“Mr. Torant is correct, however Pinnacle’s component placement machines have more downtime for machine assists and, when the equipment does malfunction, it is down for repairs on average for 28 hrs, whereas Optoplace is only down for 14 hrs.  All in all, Optoplace machines are up 6 hrs more a week in a two shift operation,” Patty calmly responded.

Will Patty’s arguments win the day?  Can a 30% more expensive machine really have more “Profit Potential?”  And what about the solder paste and materials?  Stay tuned.

Cheers,

Dr. Ron

image

Folks,

Let's look in on Patty and her colleagues......

Sam Watkins, ACME New Hampshire site GM, had just finished meeting with his boss, ACME CEO Mike Madigan. He was embarrassed that these meetings always stressed him; Mike was an intimidating character. Still, why should he be nervous? Things were going really well. Profits were up at all sites since NMAC/I/O was implemented as their new profitability metric. Patty Coleman, who suggested this metric, visited all of the ACME sites with weaker NMAC/I/O and profits, and, after performing process audits, helped these sites get their acts together. Oh, and we can’t forget Pete Ortiz, who works for Patty. They seemed to have a terrific synergistic relationship. He was an integral part of this success story.

Sam started writing an email to Patty. He and Mike concluded that, building on the recent NMAC/I/O success, they need to make ACME a “copy exactly” company. They agreed that if they were implementing a copy exactly strategy they should do it with the most cost effective assembly equipment and materials. It seemed to both of them that that the lowest “cost of ownership” should be the most important metric in this strategy. Sam finished his note to Patty asking (ordering) her to implement this strategy. She was to present a plan to achieve this goal to Sam and Mike in 6 weeks. Her presentation was to include the recommended equipment and materials, a phase-in plan, the budget needed to achieve the goal, and the projected ROI of the endeavor.

Patty was in her office having lunch while reading Golf Digest and USA Today. She looked up at her laptop screen and saw Sam's email. Reading it energized her. She was happiest when working on a significant project. After digesting the contents she thought she would call The Professor and ask his advice. Sam and Mike had insisted that she put The Professor on a retainer as he had added so much value to ACME. Patty had to chuckle, it was hard to get him to send in his bill; he seemed little motivated by money.

The Professor would never tell her how many languages he spoke, so she was going to try a little French on him.  She and Rob had been studying it at home.

“Bonjour Professeur, comment ca va?” Patty cheerfully said as The Professor answered the phone.

“Très bien Patty. Comment sont Rob et vos fils? Ma femme et moi avons été inquiets au sujet de Rob. Est-ce le dos guérit bien?” The Professor replied with a Parisian accent. (Very well Patty. How are Rob and your sons? My wife and I have been worried about Rob. Is his back healing well?)

Patty sighed and thought, “Well that makes about 10 languages I have verified so far.”

“Rob is doing quite well. Word got around and my Lean Six Sigma Green Belt instructor, Jim Hall called and shared his thoughts with me about over doing it in exercise programs. Jim is a fitness instructor and a big believer in moderate exercise. Rob has promised me to tone it down a lot,” Patty answered.

“I’m relieved,” said The Professor, “Rob needs to be healthy to keep up with your sons.”

“But, I imagine you have some business to discuss,” the Professor went right to the point.

“Yes, Sam and Mike want me to head up implementing a copy exactly program with equipment and materials, and they are strongly suggesting that the equipment and materials have the lowest cost of ownership,” Patty summarized.

“Copy exactly can be very beneficial, if the materials and equipment are good choices,” The Professor answered thoughtfully.

“But I have real problems with ‘Lowest Cost of Ownership.’ It is a good metric to compare something like automobiles, but to compare equipment or materials that are used to generate a profit it can be misused.” he replied.

Patty felt she understood where he was going, but wanted to hear it from him.

“Can you give an example?” she asked.

The Professor answered, “Let’s say a man mow lawns for a living. He considers two lawn mowers for his business, one is a push mower that cuts a 20 inch path and costs $300. Assume he takes 3 years to pay off the loan to buy it. Maintenance is $150 per year and fuel is $1200 for a 30 week season. The other is a sit down lawn mower that costs $3000, with $500 maintenance per year and it uses $3,000 in fuel per year. It cuts a 50 inch path. Which has the lower ‘Cost of Ownership?’”

“That’s easy,” Patty said, “the 20 inch push mower.” “But clearly the lowest cost of ownership is meaningless,” she went on.

“Explain,” replied the professor.

Patty answered, “Well, the man is in business to optimize profit. Clearly he can mow more laws with the sit down mower. Let’s say with the push mower he can do 4 lawns a day and with the sit down mower he can do 10 lawns a day. We can also assume he gets $35 per lawn. So, for a New Hampshire 30-week lawn mowing year, he earns 4x7x30x$35 = $29,400 with the push mower and 10x7x30x$35 = $73,500 with the sit down mower. Let me make a spreadsheet to determine the profit in each case.”

Patty was one of those young people who could type so fast that it made The Professor’s head spin. In seconds she had a spreadsheet developed.

“Wow, with the push mower he only makes $27,950 and with the riding mower he makes $69,000!” Patty exclaimed.

“And the same is true in electronics assembly. The best equipment, solder paste, solder preforms, underfill, cored solder wire, and solder fluxes are the ones that help your company make the most profit. Not the ones that have the ‘lowest cost of ownership,’” The Professor summed up.

每个客户在测试评估焊锡膏时，一般都有自己的一套办法。在通常的测试中，虽有许多相似的测试、方法，但也不尽相同。 最简单最基本的测试，一般有润湿测试wetting test, 锡球测试solder balling test， 坍塌测试slump test(hot slump & cold slump), 印刷测试printing test, 表面绝缘测试SIR test, 等等。 根据不同的侧重点，一般做完这些基本的测试后，客户们会做进一步不同的测试，比如有各种各样的printing test, 测试印刷的稳定性，一致性，和下锡量； X-ray空洞测试，BGA, QFN；热循环测试 temp cycle test；跌落测试drop test……

最近有一个客户和我们在交流slump test。 因为这个客户现在使用的锡膏有时候会有briding的现象，而他们的产品越来越微型化，pitch越来越小，所以工程师们就按照IPC slump test的指导对新的锡膏做测试。 我们了解了具体情况后，就建议客户工程师除了做一两个coupon的简单slumping测试，也做整板的印刷和slumping/briding测试；同时，我们建议客户提高印刷速度，从25mm/sec提高到50mm/sec或以上。现在很多免洗无铅锡膏，都是为高的印刷速度而设计的，因为这些产品的主要市场是在亚洲high volumn low mix的消费电子产品上，所以印刷速度要快，不能成为生产线的瓶颈(bottleneck)。 适当较快的印刷速度，能够使锡膏的总体最佳性能更好的表现出来。

客户按照我们的建议，得到了最好的测试结果。

Cheers!

Pic: Google Image 

We are frequently asked if it is possible to solder to aluminum. The answer is yes, if the following guidelines are followed: 

FLUXES:
Because it is difficult to solder to aluminum, Indium Corporation developed Indalloy Flux #3 (activation temperature is 96-343°C) to remove the tenacious oxides that prevent the solder from wetting to the surface. This flux is very corrosive and is not recommended for electronic applications because, if any of the post-reflow flux residue remains after a warm water rinse with mechanical scrubbing, the joint may be compromised. This flux is recommended for mechanical assembly joining applications only. 

Another alternate solution is to use a forming gas consisting of nitrogen and hydrogen. This method of oxide removal is generally used when the soldering temperature is greater than 350°C which is ideal for activating the hydrogen to reduce the oxides. With this method, there is no post-reflow flux residue to clean up.

METALLIZATIONS:
An alternate to corrosive fluxes is to nickel plate the aluminum so a weaker flux (RA, ROL1) can be used. These fluxes are less corrosive and can be easily removed with an appropriate solvent.   There are many solder alloys that will wet to nickel. Check out our solder alloy physical properties table.

SOLDER ALLOYS:
The solders that are normally recommended for joining aluminum are:

• Indalloy #201 (91Sn, 9Zn); 199°C E
• Indalloy #176 (95Zn, 5Al); 382°C E. 

Here is a question that was posted and answered on our website back in 2006, I think it is still quite relevant:

Question: “Why does your Application Note for cleaning of indium ribbon for thermal interface recommend a mild (5-10%) HCl acid solution, yet [the] MSDS for Indalloy #4 (100%) says to avoid contact with acid? My past indirect experience with indium usage indicated some cleaning procedure of the oxides was necessary to achieve good thermal contact resistance.”

Answer: “Thanks for contacting the Indium Corporation with your request. If the indium ribbon is stored and handled (stored unopened in an argon or nitrogen pack – placed in a dry box) properly and it solders well in your process, this procedure should not be necessary. When following this procedure, the HCl solution should be applied to the indium metal to clean it thoroughly, and then dried with nitrogen.”

If you want to know more about metal thermal interface materials (TIMs) (handling, preparation, or process parameters), send an email to our global technical team at: askus@indium.com. They are ready to answer your question!

~Jim

Folks,

Let’s see how Patty is doing with the latest crisis……

Upon hearing Claire Perkins inform her that Rob was in the hospital, Patty froze and her face looked ashen. She quickly recovered and got her cell phone out to call Rob’s mother.

“Mom, what has happened to Rob?” Patty said, her voice quavering a little.

“He hurt his back at the gym, he can hardly walk. He collapsed under a heavy barbell. His head was injured too. He was unconscious for five minutes. I’m almost at the hospital now,” Rob’s mother, Hilde Gunther replied.

“I’ll see you there,” Patty said.

Both Sam and Mike insisted that someone take her to the hospital, but Patty refused. 

Patty looked at her watch, it was 9AM. Rob was working a “swing shift” for six weeks and didn’t have to go into work until 10AM, so he went to the gym from 7:30 to 9AM most days. Patty had been teasing Rob that his workouts were getting too vigorous. She knew he was trying to snatch over 250 pounds as he was in a friendly competition with one of his friends, Fred, to see who would be the first to accomplish this significant feat. She wondered if this goal led to his accident.

The drive seemed to take forever, but soon she was at his emergency room bed. Rob was awake but his face was black and blue.  Patty didn’t notice her mother-in-law, as she quickly ran to Rob's side.

“Rob, what happened?” Patty cried.

“The good news is, I snatched 250!” he chuckled, which caused him to grimace in pain. “It was 260 pounds that was my downfall, I collapsed under the weight,” Rob went on.

“How bad are your injures?” Patty asked, a little frustrated with Rob’s levity.

“My back hurts so much, I can hardly walk, my face just looks bad. I’m going for an MRI in a few minutes, they’re worried I might have a slipped disk,” Rob answered, becoming much more serious.

Just then an MRI tech came.

“Well Mr. Gunther, we are going to squeeze you in, so I need to put you ‘On Deck’ for an MRI that opens up. Realistically, it could be two or three hours,” the tech commented.

Both Patty and his mother kissed Rob on the part of his head that wasn’t black and blue as he left. After Rob was taken away, Patty chatted with her mother-in-law for about 30 minutes.

Even though to some people it would seem strange, Patty had a way of compartmentalizing things, she knew she could not help Rob, except to pray for him which she had already done. So, she decided to do some work on her laptop. Fortunately the hospital had WiFi.

Patty had some unfinished business from what she learned on her trip investigating NMAC/I/O. She wrote an email to the GMs of the sites that were using that cheaper solder paste that had the response to pause problems or that required kneading before being used, suggesting that they change to one of two corporate approved pastes that didn’t have these issues. She also wrote a note to the people that were using a full wavesoldering process for a PWB that had only two through-hole components, solder preforms should be used with the reflow process for a PWB like this she told them.

As Patty finished the emails she needed to send, she observed the activities of the MRI section of the hospital where she was waiting for Rob. It occurred to her that this was a process just like assembling electronics. Instead of stencil printers and component placement machines, there was an MRI machine. There were techs that ran the MRI machines just like there were operators. The nurses were like the process engineers, and there were some medical doctors that were like the mangers and execs at her company. Instead of producing electronics, the MRI section was producing MRI scans. There was really little difference.

Patty got curious and she decided to ask the scheduling assistant a few questions.

“Excuse me, my husband is getting an MRI and I have a few questions,” she asked Sara Carter the assistant.

“Sure,” Sarah said, “go ahead.”

“About how much does an MRI scan cost?” Patty asked.

“It varies depending on the extent of the scans needed, but $3,000 is a good estimate,” Sarah responded.

Patty asked more questions and learned that there were 5 MRI units and she assessed the headcount and floorspace needed to support the MRI unit. She also found out that each of the 5 MRI units averaged 9 scans per day. It then occurred to her that she could use ProfitPro to estimate the cost of a typical MRI scan. Under The Professor’s tutelage she has gotten quite good at estimating burden labor rates, etc, which would be needed for the calculation. She got her laptop out and using ProftiPro, in a few minutes estimated that the hospital’s cost of an MRI scan should be only $390!

“Why does it cost our insurance $3,000?” she thought.

It then occurred to her that her good friend from her days at Tech, Emily Chen, was a radiology resident at the hospital. She decided to send her a note and, in addition to telling her about Rob, ask about the MRI scan cost. 

After sending the email, she asked her mother-in-law if she would like to get a cup of coffee. In a short time, they were heading to the hospital cafeteria. Before they left, they found out that Rob was just starting his 45 minute MRI scan. 

Fifteen minutes later they returned, and Patty was surprised that she had already received an answer from Emily.

“Patty, I’m so sorry to hear about Rob. You probably won’t hear the official news on his MRI until tomorrow, but I will take a look at it and call you later today. BTW, my boyfriend works in the finance department here. I’ll find out about the cost. But, your numbers sound way off.”

Twenty minutes later Rob was finished. His doctor had given him some pain killers and muscle relaxers, so Rob was a little more comfortable, but the doctor wanted Rob to stay overnight for observation. Rob soon fell asleep from the medication. Patty decided to stay with Rob and by 4PM, she asked her mother-in-law if she could pick the boys up from day care.

At 4:30 PM another email arrived from Emily.

“Patty, good news. I looked at Rob’s MRI scan and it looks fine. He probably just severely strained a muscle. He’ll be as good as new in a month or so” Emily’s note began. Emily’s note went on, ”My boyfriend looked up the cost for the hospital to run an MRI scan. You were close, it costs $410. Neither of us can believe it. Where does the extra $2600 go?”

Dr. Ron note: I have done some investigations into MRI scan costs. As surprising as it sounds, these numbers are about right, the base cost for a hospital to perform an MRI scan is in the $400 range, but they have to charge $3,000 to break even. Considering that many hospitals are non profits and are losing money adds to the confusion.  At this point, I don’t claim to understand the cost structure of running a hospital, but one would think that one of the most critical questions in the current healthcare cost crisis in the United States, would be to understand why $3,000 must be charged for a $400 procedure to break even.  

The image is of Yegeny Chigishyov snatching about 450 pounds in the 2008 Olympics.

Folks,

Patty arrived at work an hour early to prepare for her meeting with ACME CEO Mike Madigan. Nineteen days ago, he had asked her to develop an electronics assembly metric that would correlate with profitability. This metric would, in turn, be able to help pinpoint opportunities for improvement. He gave her 3 weeks, so she was two days early. Mike was in town to meet with Sam Watkins, the local plant manager, so he ordered that they meet. 

Patty had quickly identified non-material assembly cost per I/O (NMAC/I/O) as a good metric candidate. She went to five of ACME’s plants and, after a day or two at each one, she collected all of the data she needed to prove her point. Rob helped her by writing an Excel® macro that would calculate NMAC/I/O and plot it versus profitability. The correlation coefficient was an outstanding 0.983.

While visiting the five factories, she tried to learn why those that had a poor NMAC/I/O were performing poorly. After a little checking, she and Pete discovered that the poor performing sites typically had lines that were not time balanced, had slow component placement machines, and occasionally had very slow printers or solder paste with poor response to pause. There was even one plant that was using a full wave solder process, when only 8 solder preforms would have done the job in the reflow process. None of these “problems” would show up if you were only tracking line uptime. In light of this situation, she also developed a plan to use NMAC/I/O to identify and implement opportunities for improvement.

As Patty headed toward Sam’s office, Sam’s administrative assistant invited Patty into the conference room to allow Patty to get her laptop set up. Just as she finished setting up and her Powerpoint® presentation was on the screen, Sam and Mike walked in.

“Coleman, we’re counting on you to take us to the next level,” Mike said a little gruffly, so let’s get this show going.”

Patty looked at Sam and could tell that Sam was uncomfortable with his boss’s abrupt demeanor.

“I performed quite a bit of research and concluded that non material assembly cost per I/O is the best metric,” Patty started.

“That’s great Coleman, but what the hell is non material whatever you said,” Madigan interrupted.

Patty’s cell phone vibrated, but she ignored it.

“Non material assembly cost per I/O is the total cost of running a factory less the components, hardware, and PWBs used. Some people call this the conversion cost,” Patty answered.

“If you think about it, it is almost obvious that this is the best metric,” Patty went on, “it measures all of the non material cost divided by how much we produce.”

“I get it,” said Sam, “we are producing I/Os or solder joints, we measure the total cost to make solder joints and divide by the number of solder joints. It’s that simple.”

“Precisely,” Patty responded.

“I understand now, why uptime alone wasn’t a complete metric. You can be up and running, but be doing it inefficiently,” Mike said with a rare smile on his face.

Patty’s cell phone vibrated again.

“Exactly,” Patty commented.

“OK, so we are going to measure NMAC/I/O,” Mike commanded, “How does it correlate to profit?” He finished.

“It is nearly perfect,” Patty said.

They continued their discussions and reviewed Patty’s plan to improve productivity at the sites with a high NMAC/I/O. Patty would take the lead on this effort.

As Patty got up to leave, Mike commanded, “Oh, and Coleman, find out why so few people use NMAC/I/O.”

Patty thought this was something to discuss with the Professor.

As Patty walked out of Sam’s office, Clare Perkins, Sam’s Admin stopped her.

“Ms. Coleman, your mother-in-law called, Rob has been taken to the hospital,” Clare said.

Cheers,
Dr. Ron

Folks,

I’m taking a few moments from Wassail Weekend , held annually in my village, Woodstock VT, “The prettiest small town in America”, to write a post about last week’s workshops at ACI.

Indium colleague Ed Briggs and I gave a 3 hour presentation on “Lead-Free Assembly for High Yields and Reliability.” I think Ed’s analysis of “graping” and the “head-in-pillow” defect is the best around. 

There was quite a bit of discussion on the challenges faced by solder paste flux in the new world of lead-free solder paste and miniaturized components (i.e. very small solder paste deposits.) One of the hottest topics was nitrogen and lead-free SMT assembly. There seemed to be uniform agreement that solder paste users should be able to demand that their lead-free solder paste perform well with any PWB pad finish (e.g. OSP Immersion silver, electroless nickel gold, etc.) without the use of nitrogen. Not only does using nitrogen cost money, but it will usually make tombstoning worse. However, in the opinion of most people, nitrogen is a must for wave soldering and, since it minimizes dross development, it likely pays for itself.

After Ed and I finished, Fred Dimock, of BTU, gave one of the best talks I have ever experienced on reflow soldering. He discussed thermal profiling in detail, including the importance of assuring that thermocouples are not oxidized (when oxidized they lose accuracy). He also discussed a reflow oven design that minimizes temperature overshoot during heating, and undershoot when the heater is off. Understanding these topics is critical with the tight temperature control that many lead-free assemblers face.

Fred Verdi of ACI finished the meeting with an excellent presentation on “Pb-free Electronics for Aerospace and Defense.” Fred’s talk discussed the work that went into the “Manhattan Project.” A free download of the entire project report is available.

There appears to be agreement that acceptable lead-free reliability has been established for consumer products with lifetimes of 5 years or so, but not for military/aerospace electronics where lifetimes can be up to 40 years in harsh service conditions. These vast product lifetime and consequences of failure differences are depicted in the Fred's chart (above). Commercial products are in quadrant A and military/aerospace products in quadrant D.

One of the greatest risks faced by quadrant D products is tin whiskers. Fred spent quite a bit of time discussing this interesting phenomenon. One of the challenges of this risk is that there is no way to accelerate it, so you can’t do an equivalent test to accelerated thermal cycling or drop shock. Fred mentioned that there have now been verified tin whisker fails, the Toyota accelerator mechanism being a confirmed one.

In addition to tin whiskers, lead-free reliability for quadrant D products (with a service life of up to 40 years) in thermal cycle and other areas remains a concern.  I mention that tin pest was not on the list of issues for this quadrant.

Fred and the Manhattan Project Team have identified many "gaps" that need to be addressed to determine and mitigate the risk of lead-free assembly for quadrant D products.  They plan to start this approximately $100M program in 2013.

For those that missed this free workshop, ACI host Mike Prestoy is planning another one in 6 months.

Cheers,

Dr. Ron

Tombstoning

• the transition to Pb-Free (higher reflow temperatures, and related flux issues)
• miniaturization (0201s and 01005s)

• The reflow oven operator can slow down the ramp rate. A slower ramp rate allows for more uniform warming of the PCBA.
• Another technique is to employ a "soak" just below the melting temperature (solidus) of the alloy. For example, for a SAC305 profile (217°C solidus), one may implement a "soak" at 205 to 210°C for 30 to 120 seconds. This allows for the cooler parts of the PCBA to "catch up" to the warmer parts. After thermal equilibrium has been achieved, one can spike the temperature up to the appropriate peak temperature (i.e. 245°C). This technique (depicted in the reflow profile shown at the right) allows for all of the solder paste deposits to melt and wet the component terminations at roughly the same time; thereby, mitigating tombstoning.

Phone: +1.315.853.4900
E-mail: ebastow@indium.com

Folks,

Let's look in on Patty......

Patty was just finishing a report on work that she and Pete had performed with a team of her ACME colleagues  on reducing the Head-in-Pillow (HIP) defect at a plant in Minnesota. HIP can be caused by printed circuit board and/or a BGA warping during reflow, and, occasionally, by poor wetting BGA solder balls. Fortunately, this case of HIP was due to just a little warping, so replacing the solder paste with one of the new formulations that was designed to minimize HIP had done the trick. Ten thousand boards were produced with no detectable HIP defects.

As Patty wrote the last sentence in the report, she gazed out the window at the dusting of snow that had fallen. She liked living in southern New Hampshire and was thrilled with the house that she and Rob had purchased six months ago in Exeter.  She had to admit that Phillips Exeter Academy was also a draw. She hoped her 18 month old sons, Michael and Peter, would attend high school there, when the time came.

Patty was jarred from these thoughts by the ringing of her phone. She looked at the caller ID and saw that it was Mike Madigan, the CEO of all of ACME. Her stomach tied up in a knot. Sam, her boss, had alluded to the fact that senior management wanted to make her a VP. He asked if she had any requirements to accept such an offer. She said that she wanted to stay located where she was and she wanted Pete to be on her staff. Still, she was a bit nervous about such a big change.

“Patty Coleman, how may I help you?” Patty answered.

“Coleman, this is Mike Madigan. Congratulations, you are our new VP of Technology and Productivity. You will report to me, but, since you are staying in New Hampshire, I want you to report dotted line to Sam for day-to-day things. Coleman, don’t let me down. You are the youngest VP in the history of ACME by 5 years,” Madigan said.

Patty was a little put off by his gruff manner, but had been told to expect it.

“Thank you Mister Madigan, I’ll do my best,” Patty responded.

“I already have an assignment for you,” Madigan went on.

“You have done great things by improving line uptime at many of our sites, and profitability is up everywhere, but I sense we are still missing something. Do you know why?” he asked.

“Because the correlation between profitability and uptime is not as strong as one would like?” Patty asked.

“Coleman, I’m already glad I promoted you! That is exactly my concern.   Explore the situation, fix it and give me a better metric. I want all sites to use this new metric so I will know which locations to focus on. I want a status report in 3 weeks.” Madigan finished.

“I'll get right on it Mister Madigan and will have an update in 3 weeks or sooner,” Patty answered, exhilarated, but a little shaky.

“Good! Oh and Patty, call me Mike. It’s not the 1960s you know,” he chuckled as he hung up.

Patty hung the phone up feeling happy and stressed. She was glad to get the promotion, but knew she had to deliver.

Patty had thought about this productivity metric concern in the past. She knew where to start, she would call The Professor. She was surprised when he picked up on the first ring.

“Patty, it’s great to hear from you. How are Rob and the boys? We expect to see your sons here at Ivy University as students in 16 years,” The Professor chuckled.

After exchanging a few more pleasantries and sharing the news about her promotion, Patty got right to the point.  

“Professor, I need a metric that measures total productivity in electronics assembly. Uptime is a great metric, but it doesn’t correlate one-to-one to profitability,” Patty explained.

Patty expressed her surprise that no metric for total productivity was in wide use. They discussed the issue for a few more moments and then The Professor had a recommendation. “Read the NEMI (National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative) 1998 and the iNEMI 2011  Technology Roadmaps. Focus on board assembly and I think you will find your answer,” The Professor suggested.

After a few more pleasantries, The Professor had a request.

“Patty, I am getting a little award in Washington, DC. I have room for two guests at the award presentation. I was hoping you and Rob would come,” The Professor requested.

Patty said she would check their schedules, but was sure it would work out. She was honored that he thought so much of her and Rob.

As she hung up the phone, she went to ACME’s Tech Library in search of the iNEMI roadmaps. She quickly found the 1998 NEMI Technology Roadmap, but unfortunately only a summary of the 2011 iNEMI Roadmap was available. She thought she would read the 2011 Roadmap summary first. It was overwhelmingly impressive in its coverage of technology, at the wafer, chip, component, and board levels. The thoughtful inputs of over 575 participants, from over 310 organizations, were clearly evident. All of the current and emerging technologies were presented in detail.

“What a treasure of information,” Patty thought.

But she didn’t see an answer to her question.

So she went to the “Board Assembly” section of the 1998 Roadmap and in a few minutes she saw the answer: Board Assembly Conversion Cost in cents/I/O.

“What a simple concept,” she thought.

As she studied the document it became clear that about 30% of it focused on reducing conversion costs. Conversion costs were defined as all of the cost of assembly minus materials cost. To give this metric meaning, to enable comparisons between different manufacturing sites, the total amount of conversion cost for a manufacturing site was divided by the total number of input/output (I/O) terminals (i.e. component leads) assembled.

“This makes sense,” she thought. “You add up all of the non-material costs of assembly and divide by all of the leads you assemble. This metric shows how efficiently you assemble each lead.”

It then dawned on her that she had seen a metric like this before. She saw the notebook from The Professor’s workshop on Cost Estimating in her bookcase.  She grabbed it and flipped through it. There it was: non material assembly cost per I/O (NMACIO).

The great mystery to her is why the folks at NEMI didn't emphasize these types of cost performance metrics in newer roadmaps.

Folks,

In addition to electronics assembly productivity, solder paste and solder preform applications, and other electronics assembly concerns, many of you know that I teach statistics and have been a life-long math nerd. So, I was intrigued when good friend Rick Short, alerted me to the New Orleans Saints football team being 0-11 for coin tosses this season. One naturally asks, how unusual is this result?

Assuming a fair coin, there is a 50% chance of winning or losing on each flip. The chances of losing two times in a row is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25. The chances of losing 11 times in a row, in the first 11 tosses, is 0.5^11= 0.00048828125. Or about 2000 to 1 ( 1/0.00048828125 = 2048) as the article points out. Wow!, seems unusual. However, there are 32 teams, and it has only happened to one team. So what is the likelihood of this happening to one team this year? This calculation is a little more tricky. The easiest way to calculate it is to ask the question, what is the likelihood of this event not happening to any team?

The chances of not losing 11 in a row, in the first 11 tosses, for any team is 1-0.00048828125 =0.99951171875. So the chances that none of the 32 teams would lose 11 coin tosses in a row is 0.99951171875^32=0.98449268023. The chances that at least one team might lose 11 in a row is 1 minus this number or 1-0.98449268023= 0.015507319766 or about 1.55%. This number is still quite low. But what if we looked a 50 seasons?

The chances that 50 seasons would go by and no team would lose the first 11 coin tosses in a row is 0.98449268023^50 = 0.45774601688. So in 50 seasons, with a 32 team league, the chances are 45.77% no team would lose the first 11 coin tosses in a row, or 54.23% that at least one team would. Since these odds are close to 50/50, in fifty years, the Saint coin toss loss string is a 50 year event.

The article goes on to state:

               “And while the Saints are 7-3 and lead the NFC South despite coming up short every single time on what should be a 50-50 proposition, coin-toss statistics — yes, they do exist — show that the NFL team that won the pregame flip wound up winning 52.1 percent of the time through Week 10 this season, according to STATS LLC.

That’s about the same as the 52.6 percent that STATS shows for coin-toss “victories” matching up with game victories since the start of the 2008 season, when the NFL changed the rules to allow the team that wins the toss to defer its choice until the second half.”

If there is interest, I will see I can calculate the statistical significance of this apparent coin toss win 2.6% advantage. My guesstimate is that the difference is quite statistically significant.

Note: Some readers may ask why I have used so many decimal places in my answers. Experience has taught me that when you are taking numbers to very high powers (the 32^nd and then the 50^th) that rounding errors can be great.  In addition, noticed that I often said the "first 11 coin tosses." The odds would be higher to get eleven in a row out of a larger number of tosses, say 16.

Cheers,

Dr. Ron